Will Companies Go Bankrupt if Wage Rates Are Increased? (A Statistical Analysis)

This is Part 2 of this blog’s recent post entitled “Why Philippine Wage Rates Should Be QUADRUPLED (A Statistics-Based Analysis).”2bbx3x

As a positive contribution to workers’ demands for a significant wage hike, this post is aimed at answering the             question “CAN BIG CORPORATIONS AFFORD TO INCREASE THE MINIMUM WAGE BY AT LEAST 238 PESOS PER DAY?”

Contrary to the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE)’s claim that “hindi kaya ‘yan…” (“it can’t be done”), or the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP)’s pessimistic declaration that it’s “impossible,” WE EMPHASIZE THAT THE ANSWER IS YES. YES, BIG CORPORATIONS CAN AFFORD TO INCREASE THE MINIMUM WAGE, and it won’t even greatly affect their profits.

The Makabayan Bloc in Congress has filed a bill mandating a 750-peso minimum wage – equivalent to a 238-peso increase for Metro Manila workers, and statistics back the logic and feasibility of their legislative piece.

On a macro-economic level, a logical approach to determining the feasibility of a wage hike is to analyze figures from the “2015 Annual Survey of Philippine Business and Industry (ASPBI) – Economy Wide for Establishment with Total Employment of 20 and Over: Preliminary Results” released by the Philippine Statistics Authority just this April 2018.

As stated in the 2015 ASPBI, establishments with total employment of 20 and over accumulated incomes totalling 12.7 trillion pesos and expenses pegged at 11.0 trillion – resulting to a total profit of 1.7 trillion pesos. These businesses employ 4,507,301 workers. Hence, if these employees are given a 238-peso, across-the-board wage hike, the total annual cost (13 months, including the mandatory 13th month pay) is just 418,367,678,820 pesos (418 billion pesos – not even half a trillion pesos). As per the 2015 ASPBI, these corporations will still have a whopping total profit of nearly 1.3 billion pesos (1,281,632,321,180 pesos to be exact).

IBON Databank made a similar computation in support of a meaningful wage hike as early as 2011, pointing out that “The total cost of the proposed wage hike will only be Php135.6 billion which, subtracted from total profits, will still leave establishments with Php759.6 billion in profits.”

At the level of each corporation, the DOLE, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and other government agencies can right away prove the feasibility of a legislated wage hike, as they have a quick and unhampered access to corporate income data.

To help encourage DOLE and other agencies to do the aforementioned task, we provide a sample computation in this post. The computation below used the same flat rate for all the contractual workers of some firms, for lack of data on regional breakdowns of the number of workers per firm and considering that most if not all contractual workers are minimum wage earners. The companies listed are from the DOLE’s list of firms with the highest concentration of contractual workers. Companies with no publicly available data on profits as of this writing were not included. For firms with mother units, net profit of the mother units were utilized, as no other data is available publicly.

Company Remaining Company Profits after 238-peso daily minimum wage increase Number of Employees

 

 

 

Cost of salary increase (for 13 months @238 pesos per day/worker) Company net profit in 2017 (unless otherwise specified)
34,740 Establishments in the 2015 ASPBI 1,281,632,321,180 4,507,301 4.18368E+11 1,700,000,000,000 (2015)
Jollibee 5,620,412,800 14,960 1,388,587,200 7,009,000,000
PLDT 12,628,665,800 8,310 771,334,200 13,400,000,000
General Tuna Corp. (subsidiary of Century Pacific Food) 2,065,850,880 5,216 484,149,120 2,550,000,000
Sumi Phils. Wiring Systems Corp. (owned by Sumitomo) 50,063,203,900 4,305 399,590,100 50,462,794,000 (2016)
Furukuwa (member of the Furukawa Electric Group,) 8,229,512,340 2,863 265,743,660 8,495,256,000
Magnolia Inc. (part of San Miguel Purefoods) 6,691,340,640 2,248 208,659,360 6,900,000,000
Hinatuan Mining Corp. (owned by Nickel Asia Corp.) 1,814,712,140 1,673 155,287,860 1,970,000,000 (2016)
Brother Industries Ph. (part of Brother Group) 22,778,392,595 1,582 146,841,240 22,925,233,835
DOLE-Stanfilco (part of DOLE Food Company) 2,153,595,580 1,131 104,979,420 2,258,575,000 (2016)

Sources:

Most sources are cited and/or hyperlinked in the article.

Other sources are listed below:

http://manilastandard.net/business/it-telecom/260479/pldt-s-profit-falls-a-third-on-big-investment-.html

http://business.inquirer.net/246002/jollibee-posts-15-growth-net-income

http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_current_regional.html

http://business.inquirer.net/248569/century-pacific-food-nets-p2-55b

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8XPl2RQ_1U

http://global-sei.com/ir/library/pdf/ar2017.pdf

http://www.centurypacific.com.ph/investorpdf/Financial%20Reporting/GTC%20ISSF%20Final%20Compliance%20Report%20as%20of%20March%202017%20for%20activities%20in%202016.pdf

http://www.interaksyon.com/san-miguel-purefoods-consolidated-net-income-reaches-p6-9b-in-2017/

https://www.nickelasia.com/hinatuan-mining-corporation

https://www.nickelasia.com/application/files/7514/8955/1998/FY_2016_Results_-_FINAL.pdf

http://www.brother.com/en/corporate/network/asia/index.htm

http://rtvm.gov.ph/main/?p=15601

http://download.brother.com/pub/com/investor/accounts/2018/fy2018/2017e_con.pdf

https://investors.totalproduce.com/investors/news-and-events/investor-press-releases/2018/01-02-2018a

 

Why Philippine Wage Rates Should Be QUADRUPLED (A Statistics-Based Analysis)

This article is aimed at presenting STATISTICAL PROOF THAT THE CURRENT MINIMUM WAGE RATES IN THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD AT LEAST BE QUADRUPLED. YES, AT LEAST QUADRUPLED. (If you’re a big businessman, you have probably decided by now to ignore this post; BUT I BEG YOU TO READ ON. Statistics don’t lie.)

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Kilusang Mayo Uno, Makabayan Bloc, Act Teachers Party-List and other groups calling for the doubling of the minimum wage rates ARE RIGHT and SHOULD BE VIGOROUSLY SUPPORTED IN THEIR JUST CAUSE, because minimum wage rates in the country should actually be quadrupled, not only doubled.

Of course, when I say “JUST,” I mean, within the constitutionally mandated social justice and human rights framework in which we ARE ALL REQUIRED TO DISCUSS wage matters. For starters, the 1987 Philippine Constitution says in Article XIII, Section 3 that the State (the Philippine government) is required  to “…guarantee the rights of all workers to self-organization, collective bargaining and negotiations, and peaceful concerted activities, including the right to strike in accordance with law. They shall be entitled to security of tenure, humane conditions of work, AND A LIVING WAGE.” (emphasis supplied)

Merriam-Webster defines living wage as “a wage sufficient to provide the necessities and comforts essential to an acceptable standard of living.” Meanwhile, Richard Anker’s International Labor Organization (ILO)-funded research further explains what a living wage is by emphasizing that “(t)he idea of a living wage is that workers and their FAMILIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO AFFORD A BASIC, BUT DECENT, LIFE STYLE that is considered acceptable by society at its current level of economic development. Workers and their families SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIVE ABOVE THE POVERTY LEVEL, AND BE ABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL LIFE.” (emphasis supplied).

It is in this context that the ILO somehow semantically equates the minimum wage and the living wage, noting in an explainer entitled “How to define a minimum wage?” that “(t)he purpose of MINIMUM WAGES is to protect workers against unduly low pay. THEY HELP ENSURE a just and equitable share of the fruits of progress to all, and a MINIMUM LIVING WAGE to all who are employed and in need of such protection. Minimum wages can also be one element of a policy to overcome poverty and reduce inequality, including those between men and women.” (emphasis supplied)

With these things in mind, I have arrived at the idea of computing the minimum or low-tier wages as a percentage of cost of living.

Most – but not all – countries have minimum wages. For example, Indonesia has provincial minimum wages, and the Philippines have regional minimum wages, whereas countries such as Australia have national minimum wages. Meanwhile, as a British resident of Norway notes, “(c)ontrary to popular belief, there is no national minimum wage written into Norwegian law. Despite this, almost everyone receives a fair living wage. Why? Because Norway is heavily unionised and the vast majority of employees belong to a trade union. These unions come to collective agreements on salaries and working conditions with companies, which are then applied to all workers, not just union members. This general application of the collective agreements is in place partly to help prevent foreign workers from being taken advantage of.” In a nutsell, Norwegian wages are set by the capitalists and representatives of workers’ unions through negotiations that typically produce collective bargaining agreements.

For countries where there are no provincial, regional or national minimum wages, low-tier wages were instead culled.

For countries where there are only provincial or regional rates, the rate for the capital is chosen (if available).

For data on rents, cheaper rates for accomodations “outside of the city center” were favored.

Data for cost of living were culled (as of 30 May 2018) from Numbeo, “the world’s largest database of user contributed data about cities and countries” (whenever available). Cost of living either for the capital city or the biggest city (whenever availble) is utilized.

User-contributed data is way better than official statistics because official statistics for the cost of living are usually unreliable (if not downright ridiculous).

For example, as we note in an upcoming conference paper entitled “Poverty, Inequality, and Development in the Philippines: Official Statistics and Selected Life Stories”: “(a)s per the latest (2015) official poverty statistics released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), “a family of 5 needed at least 9,064 pesos (US $174) to meet both basic food and non-food needs monthly” of which 6,329 pesos (US $122) is allotted “to meet basic food needs,” allowing only for a meager 2,735 pesos (US $ 53) for “non-food needs.” Such pitiful amount for the non-food needs won’t cover all the items enumerated by a 2007 resolution of the country’s National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB): 1) clothing and footwear; 2) housing; 3) fuel, light, water; 4) maintenance and minor repairs; 5) rental of occupied dwelling units; 6) medical care; 7) education; 8) transportation and communication; 9) non-durable furnishings; 10) household operations; and 11) personal care & effects.” It must be noted that the Philippine government’s categories of essential non-food items doesn’t include any item related to leisure/entertainment, despite the fact that the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights (for which the Philippines voted in favor) mentions “the right to rest and leisure…” in Article 24. Other entities such as the European Union’s Eurostat (2015) includes leisure in their “quality of life indicators.” This laudable inclusion is a reflection of the generally accepted idea that leisure is an essential human need (Leversen et al., 2012, and Veal, 2015). Thus, a genuinely holistic poverty threshold should certainly include leisure-related items in the essential non-food items.”

Numbeo’s monthly cost of living statistics for a family of 4 in the Philippines (117,455 pesos) may “look” or “feel” high but it’s actually roughly equal to the 120,000-peso monthly figure favored by Filipino respondents interviewed by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) for the Ambisyon Natin 2040 project, which “probed into how much it takes to have a simple and comfortable life based on the specific needs” such as “having a medium sized home, having enough earnings to support everyday needs, owning at least one car/vehicle, having the capacity to provide their children college education; and going on local trips for vacation.”

Country Wage as % of Cost of Living for 1 Person Without Rent Wage as % of Cost of Living for a Family of 4 Without Rent Wage as % of Cost of Living for 1 Person With Rent Wage as  % of Cost of Living for a Family of 4 With Rent Monthly Minimum or Low-Tier Wage Monthly Cost of Living for 1 Person Cost of Living for Family of 4 Without Rent Cost of Rent for a Family (3-bedroom apartment) Cost of Rent for 1 Person (1-bedroom apartment) Currency of Available Data
Norway 271.67921 75.52933449 144.0015 53.06851959 28,632 10,538.90 37,908.45 16,044.44 9,344.23 NOK
Brunei 68.728522 19.31378135 37.56362 12.93456082 400 582 2,071.06 1,021.43 482.86 USD
Cambodia 29.72028 8.403569045 19.87537 6.428728095 170 572 2,022.95 621.43 283.33 USD
Indonesia 51.098128 14.80968162 35.69504 11.24491857 265 518.61 1,789.37 567.25 223.79 USD
Laos No Data No Data No Data No Data 1,100,000 No Data No Data 10,465,250 2,895,385.83 KIP
Malaysia 49.181276 13.87460621 29.94926 8.807894637 255 518.49 1,837.89 1,057.24 332.95 USD
Myanmar No Data No Data No Data No Data 108 No Data No Data 940.00 350.00 USD
Philippines 53.210974 15.64707576 36.73993 12.13234111 14,250 26,780.19 91,071.33 26,383.33 12,005.95 PHP
Singapore 83.442885 22.93573019 33.80619 13.78879725 1,060 1,270.33 4,621.61 3,065.79 1,865.19 SGD
Thailand 47.358156 13.16239416 32.61044 9.562533415 9,900 20,904.53 75,214.28 28,314.77 9,453.85 TB
Timor Leste No Data No Data No Data 8.214285714 115 No Data No Data 1,400 466.67  USD
Vietnam 39.798199 11.03123358 24.97804 8.390181581 176 443.01 1,598.28 499.41  262.85 USD

In all aspects analyzed, Norwegian workers are in a relatively very good situation. For example, Norwegian workers need only roughly two (2) low-tier monthly incomes to afford the monthly cost of living for a family of 4 with rent. Meanwhile, Cambodian workers need nearly 15 minimum monthly wages to afford the monthly cost of living for a family of 4 with rent. Yes, Filipino workers are somehow relatively better off compared with Cambodian workers, as Filipino workers (in Metro Manila) need roughly 8 minimum monthly wages to finance the needs of a family of 4 with rent. In most aspects analyzed, Filipino minimum wage earners are just slightly in a better situation than Indonesian and Malaysian minimum wage earners but are also slightly behind Singaporean and Bruneian minimum wage earners.

Simply put, we are still in a shithole (perhaps not as shitty as we think, but it’s nevertheless shitty).

Considering that the Philippine government claims that under the Duterte administration, Philippine macroeconomic statistics are generally positive and very much improving, President Duterte should ensure that the minimum wage rate in our country is AT LEAST doubled.

Otherwise, all talk of macroeconomic growth under the Duterte administration will be deemed as fake news.

If the aforementioned statistics will be taken in consideration, PHILIPPINE MINIMUM WAGE RATES WILL HAVE TO BE QUADRUPLED IF WE WANT A FAMILY OF 4 TO LIVE WITH ONLY TWO MINIMUM WAGES.

Media firms in the Philippines GENERALLY DON’T CULL DATA FOR WAGES AS % OF COST OF LIVING. Most PH media firms limit their reports on wage rates and GDP per capita data – which is useless comparison because we all know GDP per capita is computed by averaging income groups in each country which means GDP per capita data is computed by averaging the income of Filipino billionaires, Filipino professionals and Filipino minimum wage earners; thus we can’t clearly see the connection between wage rates and GDP per capita, other than the fact that GDP per capita will always be way way ahead the minimum wage rate. Hence, it’s very useful to take the trouble of culling data for wages as % of the cost of living. This provides CLEAR proof that the government can no longer ignore calls for a wage hike in the country. Statistics don’t lie.

We will tackle other matters related to wage hikes (such as the inflation myth and the bankruptcy bogeyman peddled by neoliberal economists and capitalist groups in the country) on our next post.

UPDATE: Part 2 of this post is now available at: https://alternative2022.wordpress.com/2018/05/31/81/  

NOTE ON SOURCES:

Most sources are cited and/or hyperlinked in the article.

Sources for minimum wage rates are listed below:

Brunei: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/us400-monthly-minimum-wage-filipinos-brunei/

Norway: https://www.lifeinnorway.net/norway-minimum-wage/

Cambodia: https://www.reuters.com/article/cambodia-economy-garmentworkers-wages/cambodia-hikes-minimum-wage-for-textiles-workers-by-11-pct-from-2018-idUSL4N1MG1Q6

Indonesia: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/11/01/jakarta-sets-2018-minimum-wage-at-rp-3-6-million.html

Laos: https://laotiantimes.com/2018/04/24/laos-government-approves-minimum-wage-increase/

Malaysia: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-election-wages/malaysias-najib-dangles-minimum-wage-hike-other-benefits-ahead-of-vote-idUSKBN1I234S

Myanmar: https://www.mmtimes.com/news/government-sets-new-daily-minimum-wage-k4800.html

Singapore: https://www.bna.com/singapore-adopts-minimum-n73014452866/

Thailand: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/minimum-wage-rise-5-22-baht-effective-april-1/

Philippines and other countries:

http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_comparative.html

http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_current_regional.html

Timor Leste: https://www.minimum-wage.org/international/timor-leste

Vietnam: http://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-minimum-wages-on-the-rise-in-2018.html/